Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed here and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
